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PER is at the lowest level in the market, double the level of TEPCO HD stock “Reconstruction”


The stock price of TEPCO Holdings (9501) is not even available. It has been in the low range since the beginning of the year, and the expected PER (price-earnings ratio) is in the double range, the lowest among the constituents of the TSE stock price index (TOPIX). The reason is, of course, that there is too much uncertainty about the future of “time” and “fund” around the nuclear power plant. Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has no prospect of decommissioning work or treatment of contaminated water. In early December, I participated in a news gathering of the Japan Press Club and inspected the current situation.

The contaminated water tank will fill up around the summer of 2010

First of all, there is the troublesome issue of "time". It is polluted water that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a big idea as "under control" at the Tokyo Olympics bid speech. The treated water after cleaning the contaminated water containing radioactive substances is stored in the tank, but it is estimated that the storage amount will reach the limit by the summer of 2022. The treated water contains radioactive tritium that cannot be removed even after purification. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) proposed on the 23rd that it would dilute the ocean and release it into the sea, and vaporize it into the atmosphere and release it into the atmosphere. Local fisheries officials strongly oppose the release of the ocean, and it is inevitable that the government will have to make difficult decisions.

Investigation continues for debris retrieval

Currently, 96% of the nuclear power plant premises can walk with general work clothes and disposable masks. The exposure dose was 0.02 millisievert after looking around the campus for about 5 hours. Although Units 1 to 3, which had a high dose, approached the distance where they could be seen up close, the dose was still below the dose for one X-ray examination of the chest (0.06 millisievert), and the dose that is believed to affect the human body (100 Far below the millisievert).

I saw many workers on the premises. About 4000 people go to the site every day, but more than 90% of them are temporary employees from cooperating companies such as construction companies, and there are about 100 to 200 workers at TEPCO. Currently, the work around the buildings of Units 1 to 3 is becoming active for the debris retrieval. To prevent terrorism in such areas, photography was often restricted so that the route to nuclear material could not be known.

There is a long way to go to complete the decommissioning. The government has left the completion date 30 to 40 years after the accident in the latest revision of the decommissioning process. However, it is difficult to remove the nuclear fuel (debris) that has melted down into the reactor. It was decided to start from Unit 2 by the end of 2021, but the exact amount, distribution, and composition of debris cannot be accurately grasped, and the amount of work cannot be estimated.

According to the plan announced by TEPCO in April, 194.9 billion yen in FY2019, 233.6 billion yen in FY2020, and 2016 billion yen in FY2009 are planned for decommissioning work. This is an amount equivalent to TEPCO's consolidated ordinary profit of 276.5 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2019. If the debris retrieval method is specifically decided, the cost may increase.

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear power plant road that cannot be restarted

Not to mention the huge “finance” aspect. In the first place, the total cost for the decommissioning and reconstruction of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is expected to be 22 trillion yen, of which 16 trillion yen, 500 billion yen per year, is planned to be paid by TEPCO. The "premise" to generate this disheartening fund was the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Niigata, which passed the safety review by the Nuclear Regulation Authority. However, there is no concrete path for the person restarting the operation, and after all, the risk that the future profit plan will be hard to read will increase. "Investors are reluctant to be overwhelmed by nuclear news and are avoiding the power sector itself," said Reiji Ogino, senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

In fact, TEPCO has another structural problem, which is the dilution of stocks in the future. The government subscribed for 1 trillion yen worth of preferred stock in July 2012, but this preferred stock can be converted to ordinary stock in the range of 30 to 300 yen. If it is converted at the upper limit of 300 yen, it will be over 3.3 billion shares, and the number of issued shares will be more than 3 times the current number (about 1.6 billion shares), and 30 yen will increase to 20 times or more. The government and TEPCO plan to cover 4 trillion yen out of the 22 trillion yen necessary for recovery from the accident with the profit from the sale of common stock, but it is almost impossible at this time to anticipate an increase in the number of shares and dilution, and securities companies also I cannot calculate the stock price. It is certain that there will be an extremely large factor for selling pressure in the future, which is also a material that holds the PER in the double range.