Auto autonomous driving industry, the implementation of intelligent upgrading of systems and their domestic replacement is expected to become a trend of rapid development in the next few years, especially in the chassis industry. According to our calculations, the current domestic air suspension market penetration rate of about 1%. 2025 domestic air suspension market penetration rate is expected to exceed 10%, passenger car air suspension market size is expected to reach 23.3 billion yuan.
2022E new energy vehicles: total sales of 5.23 million, plug-in hybrid / medium and high price segment leading
Total market sales in 2022: estimated 5.23 million units, up 49% year-on-year
2022January-March total new energy vehicle sales of 1.26 million units, up 139% year-on-year, 19% penetration rate New energy passenger car sales of 1.21 million units, penetration rate of 22%, of which the penetration rate of pure electric / plug-in hybrid passenger cars is 17/4%. In total, we predict that after April by the repeated epidemic and control measures to strengthen the impact of Tesla, Azera, SAIC and other companies announced a shutdown, the whole vehicle parts supply chain continues to be tight, sales may be significantly under pressure.
Considering 1) repeated domestic epidemic, factories may face the risk of shutdown; 2) chip, battery and it core parts supply chain tension; we estimate 2022/2023/2024 car sales of 2751/2823/29.15 million units, an increase of 4.7/2.6/3.3% year-on-year. Among them, new energy vehicle sales of 523/720/8.6 million units, an increase of 49/37/19% year-on-year, corresponding to a penetration rate of 19/26/30%.
Compared with the previous three years of monthly sales of new energy vehicles, the first three months completed 23% of everyone's forecast, slightly higher than in 2019 (the second half of the subsidy withdrawal of more than 50%), much5g gnss higher than in 2020 (the first two months of the new crown epidemic outbreak), 2021 (the second half of the carbon neutral stimulus sales increased significantly), to a certain extent to cover the impact of the repeated epidemic and growth rate decline in Q2 this year.
Structure, we predict that after April plug-in hybrid cars to deal with the battery price increase tougher, subject to mileage limit worse; medium and high-end models by raw materials and core parts shortage price increase tougher, target customer groups by macro requirements lower impact is less, is expected to run the field.
300,000-400,000 yuan range is expected to continue to outperform the field
According to Marklines, the fastest growth rate of new energy passenger car sales so far last year was located in the 300,000-400,000 yuan range. 23.1/15.5/13.9/29.5%.
We predict that this year, the cost of raw materials or price increases will suppress the sales and profitability of the low-end models, the mid-range and high-end models (300,000-400,000 yuan) is expected to continue to maintain a runaway field.